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April 10, 2025 (updated early-month)
Alert Status:
Final La Niña Advisory
(definitions)
ENSO-neutral is favored during the Northern Hemisphere summer, with a greater than
50% chance through August-October 2025
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION:
In March 2025, ENSO-neutral conditions returned, with below-average sea surface
temperatures (SSTs) weakening in the
central and east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean. The westernmost Niño
index values were near zero, while positive index values persisted in the
easternmost Niño-3 and Niño-1+2 regions. Below-average subsurface
temperatures weakened, but negative anomalies continued in the central
equatorial Pacific, extending to 250m depth. A shallow layer of above-average
subsurface temperatures continued in the far eastern equatorial Pacific.
Low-level wind anomalies remained easterly over the western and central
Pacific, while upper-level wind anomalies were westerly over the central
Pacific. Convection was suppressed around the Date Line and was enhanced
near Indonesia. The traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation indices
were positive. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected
ENSO-neutral conditions.
Last month, the
IRI
and North American multi-model ansemble
indicate ENSO-neutral would continue through the summer. The forecast team
also favors ENSO-neutral, with chances well over 50% through summer 2025.
Because of reduced forecast accuracy in the spring, the uncertainty increases
at longer time horizons, with a 43% chance of ENSO-neutral and a 38% chance of
La Niña during November 2025 - January 2026 (chances of El Niño are
under 20%).
... Read more at the
NOAA's Diagnostic Discussion,
CPC ENSO Update
, and
CPC's Official Probabilistic ENSO Forecast
sites,
all updated at the same time in the early-month.
** Note: IRI's Monthly Ouick Look updates twice
per month and presents the latest update between the (I) early-month CPC official Probabilistic
Forecast (shown in this section) and (II) mid-month IRI Model-Based Probabilistic Forecast
(shown in the following two sections).
(The update of the CPC ENSO diagnostics discussion and forecast is scheduled
for the second Thursday of each month.)
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April 21, 2025 (updated mid-month)
During the forecast period, neither El Niño nor La Niña shows
a strong preference, with the probabilities for both phases gradually
increasing and then stabilizing in the upper 20% range.
As of mid-April 2025, the equatorial Pacific is in an ENSO-neutral state.
This shift is marked by sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region
that are now closer to average, with anomalies at 0.10°C for Mar, 2025.
The IRI ENSO
plume forecast
indicates a high probability (96%) of ENSO-neutral conditions for April to
June 2025. These neutral conditions are expected to continue through August
to October 2025, with probabilities staying above 50%. For later forecast
seasons, ENSO-neutral conditions remain the most likely outcome, though
probabilities decrease to the 40% range.
... Read more at the
IRI Technical ENSO Update,
IRI Model-Based Probabilistic ENSO Forecast
,
IRI ENSO Predictions Plume
, and
IRI Forecast Probability Distribution Based on the IRI ENSO Prediction
Plume
sites, all updated at the same time in the mid-month.
** Note: IRI's Monthly Ouick Look updates twice
per month and presents the latest update between the (I) early-month CPC official Probabilistic
Forecast (shown in this section) and (II) mid-month IRI Model-Based Probabilistic Forecast
(shown in the following two sections).
(The update of the IRI ENSO forecast is scheduled for the 19th of each month. If the 19th falls on a weekend or holiday, it is released on the closest business day.)
April 21, 2025 (updated mid-month)
|
... Read more
here, where
any specific model can be interactively examined, along with other detailed information.
(The update of the IRI ENSO forecast is scheduled for the 19th of each month. If the 19th falls on a weekend or holiday, it is released on the closest business day.)
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Ocean Niño Index (ONI) - NOAA's primary indicator for monitoring ENSO:
Journal Article: A Relative Sea Surface Temperature Index for Classifying ENSO Events
NOAA CPC's El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) resources webpage
El Niño Regions:
El Niño and La Niña events tend to develop during the period Apr-Jun and they
The spring predictability barrier: Forecasts made at some times of the year generally have higher skill than forecasts made at other times of the year -- namely, they are better when made between June and December than when they are made between February and May. This is a well-known challenge for forecaster and it can impact statistical models more than dynamical models.
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