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June 12, 2025 (updated early-month)
Alert Status:
Not Active
(definitions)
ENSO-Neutral is likely in the Northern Hemisphere summer 2025 (82% chance in June-August)
and may continue into winter 2025-26, though confidence is lower (48% chance of Neutral
and 41% chance of La Niña in November-January).
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION:
In the past month, ENSO-neutral conditions persisted, with sea surface temperatures (SSTs)
near average over most of
the
equatorial Pacific Ocean. The
latest
weekly Niño index values ranged from -0.1°C to +0.4°C.
Subsurface
ocean temperatures were near-to-above average (averaged across 180°-100°W,
with above-average subsurface ocean temperatures
at depth
in the central and western Pacific.
For the month,
low-level
and upper-level winds were near average across the equatorial
Pacific. Convection remained suppressed near and west of the Date Line and was
enhanced near Indonesia. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system was ENSO-neutral.
Last month, the
IRI
and North American multi-model Ensemble
predictions indicate ENSO-neutral is most likely through the Northern Hemisphere winter
2025-26. The forecast team also continuously favors ENSO-neutral through early 2026,
with smaller chances that La Niña could form during winter 2025-26.
... Read more at the
NOAA's Diagnostic Discussion,
CPC ENSO Update
, and
CPC's Official Probabilistic ENSO Forecast
sites,
all updated at the same time in the early-month.
** Note: IRI's Monthly Ouick Look updates twice
per month and presents the latest update between the (I) early-month CPC official Probabilistic
Forecast (shown in this section) and (II) mid-month IRI Model-Based Probabilistic Forecast
(shown in the following two sections).
(The update of the CPC ENSO diagnostics discussion and forecast is scheduled
for the second Thursday of each month.)
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June 20, 2025 (updated mid-month)
The neutral conditions are expected to persist through the end of the forecast
period.
As of mid-June 2025, the equatorial Pacific remains in an ENSO-neutral state,
with sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region close to average.
The IRI ENSO
plume forecast
indicates a high probability (84%) of ENSO-neutral conditions for Jun–Aug 2025.
These neutral conditions are expected to persist through the end of the forecast
period. For later seasons (Oct–Dec and Nov–Jan), the probabilities for
ENSO-neutral decrease slightly to 49% and 48%, respectively, but remain higher
than those for either La Niña or El Niño. Looking ahead to the
2025/2026 period, ENSO-neutral once again becomes the dominant category, with
probabilities of 50% for Dec–Feb, 55% for Jan–Mar, and 66% for Feb–Apr 2026,
compared to La Niña and El Niño.
... Read more at the
IRI Technical ENSO Update,
IRI Model-Based Probabilistic ENSO Forecast
,
IRI ENSO Predictions Plume
, and
IRI Forecast Probability Distribution Based on the IRI ENSO Prediction
Plume
sites, all updated at the same time in the mid-month.
** Note: IRI's Monthly Ouick Look updates twice
per month and presents the latest update between the (I) early-month CPC official Probabilistic
Forecast (shown in this section) and (II) mid-month IRI Model-Based Probabilistic Forecast
(shown in the following two sections).
(The update of the IRI ENSO forecast is scheduled for the 19th of each month. If the 19th falls on a weekend or holiday, it is released on the closest business day.)
June 20, 2025 (updated mid-month)
|
... Read more
here, where
any specific model can be interactively examined, along with other detailed information.
(The update of the IRI ENSO forecast is scheduled for the 19th of each month. If the 19th falls on a weekend or holiday, it is released on the closest business day.)
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Ocean Niño Index (ONI) - NOAA's primary indicator for monitoring ENSO:
Journal Article: A Relative Sea Surface Temperature Index for Classifying ENSO Events
NOAA CPC's El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) resources webpage
El Niño Regions:
El Niño and La Niña events tend to develop during the period Apr-Jun and they
The spring predictability barrier: Forecasts made at some times of the year generally have higher skill than forecasts made at other times of the year -- namely, they are better when made between June and December than when they are made between February and May. This is a well-known challenge for forecaster and it can impact statistical models more than dynamical models.
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