El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Conditions



As of March 14, 2024, the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction's (NCEP) El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Alert System remains at El Niño Advisory/La Niña Watch. During February 2024, sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies continued to weaken across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. In the last week, below-average SSTs emerged in a small region of the eastern equatorial Pacific (~100°W). The weekly Niño indices weakened but remained positive, with the latest value in Niño-3.4 standing at 1.4°C. Area-averaged subsurface temperature anomalies were slightly negative, reflecting the consequences of an upwelling Kelvin wave and associated below-average temperatures across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Low-level winds were near average over most of the equatorial Pacific, while upper-level wind anomalies were easterly over the east-central Pacific. Convection was enhanced near the International Date Line and was suppressed near Indonesia. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected a weakening El Niño.

The most recent IRI plume indicates a transition to ENSO-neutral during spring 2024, with La Niña potentially developing during summer 2024. While different types of models suggest La Niña will develop, the forecast team favors the dynamical model guidance, which is slightly more accurate for forecasts made during this time of year. Even though forecasts made through the spring season tend to be less reliable, there is a historical tendency for La Niña to follow strong El Niño events.

In summary, a transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is likely by April-June 2024 (83% chance), with the odds of La Niña developing by June-August 2024 (62% chance).



The latest Columbia Climate School International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society ENSO predictions plume, pictured just above and published on February 19, 2024, shows forecasts made by a set of dynamical and statistical models for SST in the Niño-3.4 region, for nine, overlapping, three-month periods. As of mid-February 2024, moderate-strong El Niño conditions persist in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, with important oceanic and atmospheric indicators aligning with an ongoing El Niño event that is gradually diminishing. An El Niño advisory from the CPC continues for February, alongside a La Niña watch issued for June-August 2024. Almost all the models in the IRI ENSO prediction plume forecast a continuation of the El Niño event during the rest of the boreal winter and spring 2024, with a rapid weakening thereafter. ENSO-neutral conditions become the most likely category in April-June and May-July 2024. For June-August, no single category stands out as dominant, with ENSO-neutral and La Niña being almost equally likely. By July-September 2024, La Niña becomes the most probable category.







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