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February 12, 2026 (updated early-month)
Alert Status:
La Niña Advisory
(definitions)
A transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral is expected in February-April 2026 (60% chance),
with ENSO-neutral likely persisting through the Northern Hemisphere summer (56% chance in
June-August 2026).
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION:
La Niña continued in January 2026, with below-average sea surface temperatures (
SSTs) observed in the
east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean.
The
latest
weekly Niño-3.4 index value was -0.9°C, with the
westernmost (Niño-4) and easternmost (Niño-1+2) indices at -0.4°C and 0.0°C,
respectively.
The
equatorial
subsurface temperature index (average from 180°-100°W) significantly increased, reflecting
the strengthening and expansion of above-average subsurface temperatures across the
Pacific Ocean.
Atmospheric anomalies weakened due to subseasonal variability, but still reflected aspects of
La Niña. Low-level westerly wind anomalies were present over the western equatorial
Pacific, and upper-level westerly wind anomalies continued across the east-central equatorial
Pacific. Suppressed convection was weakly evident near the
Date
Line and over the equatorial Maritime Continent, with enhanced convection located off the
equator.
The traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation indices were positive. Collectively, the
coupled ocean-atmosphere system remained consistent with La Niña.
The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) average, including the
NCEP
CFSv2, favors the onset of ENSO-neutral in February-April 2026. The team consensus also
reflects this outcome, with ENSO-neutral persisting through the Northern Hemisphere summer
2026. For the late summer and beyond, there is a 50-60% chance of El Niño forming,
though model uncertainty remains considerable and forecasts made this time of year tend to
have lower accuracy.
... Read more at the
NOAA's Diagnostic Discussion
,
CPC ENSO Update, and
CPC's Official Probabilistic ENSO Forecast sites,
all updated at the same time in the early-month.
** Note: IRI's Monthly Ouick Look updates twice
per month and presents the latest update between the (I) early-month CPC official Probabilistic
Forecast (shown in this section) and (II) mid-month IRI Model-Based Probabilistic Forecast
(shown in the following two sections).
(The update of the CPC ENSO diagnostics discussion and forecast is scheduled
for the second Thursday of each month.)
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February 19, 2026 (updated mid-month)
the probability of La Niña at just 4% for Feb–Apr 2026 and shifts
the odds in favor of ENSO-neutral conditions (about 96%) for the same period.
As of mid-February 2026, the equatorial Pacific is experiencing a declining La
Niña conditions.
The CCSR/IRI ENSO
plume forecast
places the probability of La Niña at just 4% for Feb–Apr 2026 and shifts
the odds in favor of ENSO-neutral conditions (about 96%) for the same period.
ENSO-neutral remains the dominant category through Mar-May (90%) and Apr-Jun (65%),
while El Niño probabilities increase rapidly during same period. Starting in
May-July, El Niño probabilities become higher than ENSO-neutral and remain
in the range of 58% to 61%, with ENSO-neutral the second most likely outcome.
... Read more at the
IRI Technical ENSO Update,
IRI Model-Based Probabilistic ENSO Forecast,
IRI ENSO Predictions Plume, and
IRI Forecast Probability Distribution Based on the IRI ENSO Prediction
Plume sites, all updated at the same time in the mid-month.
** Note: IRI's Monthly Ouick Look updates twice
per month and presents the latest update between the (I) early-month CPC official Probabilistic
Forecast (shown in this section) and (II) mid-month IRI Model-Based Probabilistic Forecast
(shown in the following two sections).
(The update of the IRI ENSO forecast is scheduled for the 19th of each month. If the 19th falls on a weekend or holiday, it is released on the closest business day.)
February 19, 2026 (updated mid-month)
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... Read more
here, where
any specific model can be interactively examined, along with other detailed information.
(The update of the IRI ENSO forecast is scheduled for the 19th of each month. If the 19th falls on a weekend or holiday, it is released on the closest business day.)
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Ocean Niño Index (ONI) - NOAA's primary indicator for monitoring ENSO:
Journal Article: A Relative Sea Surface Temperature Index for Classifying ENSO Events
NOAA CPC's El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) resources webpage
El Niño Regions:
El Niño and La Niña events tend to develop during the period Apr-Jun and they
The spring predictability barrier: Forecasts made at some times of the year generally have higher skill than forecasts made at other times of the year -- namely, they are better when made between June and December than when they are made between February and May. This is a well-known challenge for forecaster and it can impact statistical models more than dynamical models.
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