(Update scheduled for the second Thursday of each month)

I) NOAA CPC Probabilistic Forecast
July 9, 2026

Alert Status:   El Niño Advisory
(definitions)

El Niño continues and will strengthen through the end of the year, with a 97% chance it will persist through early spring 2027.


DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION:
[Available in various file formats]

El Niño strengthened over the past month, with a large area of sea surface temperature anomalies in excess of +1.0°C across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. The latest weekly Niño-3.4 index value was +1.2°C, with the westernmost (Niño-4) and easternmost (Niño-1+2) indices at +0.5°C and +2.7°C, respectively. The equatorial subsurface temperature index (average from 180°-100°W) increased, as a recent downwelling Kelvin wave deepened the thermocline and raised temperatures in the eastern Pacific.

Low-level westerly wind anomalies and upper-level easterly wind anomalies were observed over the western and central equatorial Pacific. Convection was enhanced over the central and east-central equatorial Pacific and was suppressed over Indonesia. The traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation indices were significantly negative. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected a strengthening El Niño.

The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) average, including the NCEP CFSv2, forecasts El Niño to intensify through 2026. Alongside model forecasts, a strong coupling of the atmospheric and oceanic circulation across the Pacific contributes to very high confidence that El Niño will continue through early 2027. There is an 81% chance of a very strong El Niño during October-December that would rank among the largest El Niño events in the historical record going back to 1950. Even the strongest El Niño events do not lead to the typical impact everywhere, but stronger events can more significantly tilt the odds in favor of expected outcomes (see CPC outlooks for probabilities of seasonal anomalies).

II) Frequently Used Figures
Click on the figures to access the web pages where these figures are described.

ENSO Blog         NOAA CPC Weekly ENSO Update Presentation

Other Relevant Information

Relative Ocean Niño Index (RONI) and Ocean Niño Index (ONI)     (*** update on the 5th of each month ***)

Per NWS Public Information Statement 26-05, effectively February 1, 2026, the Relative Oceanic Niño index (RONI) is used for official monitoring and prediction of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. See more details here.

• 1950-Present Relative Ocean Niño Index (RONI) Values

• 1950-Present Ocean Niño Index (ONI) Values

• Difference between the legacy ONI and RONI, and their respective time series, from 1950 to present.
  • What is Ocean Niño Index (ONI)?
  • Defining El Niño and La Niña
  • NOAA CPC: Climatology used to calculate the Ocean Niño Index (ONI)
  • NOAA CPC: ONI Climatology Matchup Table

Journal Article: A Relative Sea Surface Temperature Index for Classifying ENSO Events

NOAA CPC's El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) resources webpage

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Climate Normals

El Niño Regions:

Historically Speaking & More:

El Niño and La Niña events tend to develop during the period Apr-Jun and they

• Tend to reach their maximum strength during October - February
• Typically persist for 9-12 months, though occasionally persisting for up to 2 years
• Typically recur every 2 to 7 years

The spring predictability barrier: Forecasts made at some times of the year generally have higher skill than forecasts made at other times of the year -- namely, they are better when made between June and December than when they are made between February and May. This is a well-known challenge for forecaster and it can impact statistical models more than dynamical models.

For more information, please contact coralreefwatch@noaa.gov

Disclaimer

The content posted on this web page solely represents the opinions of the authors and does not constitute a statement of policy, decision, or position on behalf of NOAA or the US Government.

The appearance of external links on this World Wide Web site does not constitute endorsement by the Department of Commerce/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of external Web sites or the information, products or services contained therein. For other than authorized activities, the Department of Commerce/NOAA does not exercise any editorial control over the information you may find at these locations. These links are provided consistent with the stated purpose of this Department of Commerce/NOAA Web site.