Projections of Coral Bleaching and Ocean Acidification for Coral Reef Areas
(Climate model (1°) resolution; released 2014)

For projections of coral bleaching downscaled to 4km-resolution, see here.

Coral reefs worldwide, and the services they provide, are seriously threatened by anthropogenic climate change and its impacts, including ocean acidification and coral bleaching. Here, we present global projections for these key coral reef threats. The projections are based on ensembles of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) climate models using experiments with selected Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) .

All projections presented within van Hooidonk et al. (2014) are shown in a Google Earth file (a kmz file, ~1.2MB). We encourage all viewers to read the Contents Description found at the 'About this product' page at the top of the file directory structure containing the images (see "My Places" in the left-hand side of the Google Earth interface).

The methods and names of the models used in the projections can be found here.

Problems viewing the file are likely to have one of three causes: 1) you need to clear everything from your 'My Places' folder or need to de-select anything saved there; 2) you need to download the most current version of Google Earth; and/or 3) the limitations of your PC or graphics card don't allow for the file to be viewed.

This research was made possible by a grant from the Pacific Islands Climate Change Cooperative to the authors of van Hooidonk et al. (2014).


Any information used from these projections should be cited as 'van Hooidonk et al. (2014)'. Image screen captures from the Google Earth file should always appear with 'adapted from van Hooidonk et al. (2014)', if used in presentations, reports, publications, web pages, etc.

For questions about the projections and methods, please email the lead author, Ruben van Hooidonk, at


van Hooidonk R, Maynard J, Manzello D, Planes S (2014) Opposite latitudinal gradients in projected ocean acidification and bleaching impacts on coral reefs. Global Change Biology, doi: 10.1111/gcb.12394.

van Hooidonk R, Maynard J, Planes S (2013) Temporary refugia for coral reefs in a warming world. Nature Climate Change, 3, 508-511, doi: 10.1038/nclimate1829.