Per the figure on the left, a majority of the models in the IRI/CPC plume predict ENSO-neutral to continue through autumn and winter 2021-22. However, the latest forecast model runs from the NOAA NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2), many of the models from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble, and some models from our international partners indicate the onset of La Niña during Northern Hemisphere autumn, continuing into winter 2021-22. The forecaster consensus favors these model ensembles, while also noting the historical tendency for a second winter of La Niña to follow the first. In summary, ENSO-neutral is favored through Northern Hemisphere summer and into the fall (51% chance for the August-October season), with La Niña potentially emerging during the September-November season and lasting through winter 2021-22 (66% chance during November 2021-January 2022).
This next figure on the left, published June 18, 2021, shows forecasts, made by a set of dynamical and statistical models for SST in the Niño-3.4 region, for nine overlapping three-month periods. Most of the models issued during mid-June 2021 show ENSO-neutral SST conditions are likely to persist at least through the September-November 2021 season. ENSO-neutral also retains the highest probability of the three categories for all forecast periods shown. In the most recent week, the SST anomaly in the Ninño-3.4 region was 0.0 °C, indicative of ENSO-neutral, and -0.34 °C for the month of May. As of mid-June, the subsurface water temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific are now just slightly above-average -- a result of the upper ocean adjusting post La Niña.
A majority of the dynamical and statistical models predict ENSO-neutral conditions, with 85% likelihood, for the June-August season, decreasing to about 50% by October-December, and then increasing again slightly as 2022 begins.
As of this initial writing, with the 2015 El Niño continuing to develop and intensify in the Northern Hemisphere, the following is a brief overview of the pattern and timing of heat stress that resulted in widespread severe coral bleaching during 1997-1999. Past reports have estimated that over 15% of the world's coral reefs were effectively lost during the 1997-1999 period (Wilkinson 2000). At that time, NOAA Coral Reef Watch observed widespread, prolonged high temperatures that caused coral bleaching. This was associated with what has been argued to be the largest El Niño on record (1997-1998) followed immediately by a strong La Niña (1998-1999). In general, many areas that are untouched by warming during an El Niño are influenced by warming during a La Niña (see Eakin et al. 2009).
The following discussion uses the NOAA Coral Reef Watch SST Anomaly and Bleaching Alert Area products to illustrate the events. The Bleaching Alert Area shows patterns of areas with accumulated thermal stress sufficient to cause coral bleaching. The patterns are a bit different, and more coral-focused, than those visible in the SST Anomaly data. More on these products can be found at: https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/index.php.
The classical El Niño warming pattern formed by May 1997, with initiation of SST warming from the central tropical Pacific eastward to the South American coastline. Prolonged thermal stress with the potential to cause bleaching was seen along the equator, from Howland and Baker Islands east to the Galapagos and the Ecuadorian coastline, during the remainder of 1997. During this time, warming also proceeded northward along the South American coast to Panama. Additionally, warming was seen reaching northeast to Mexico, and some warming was seen along the Central American Coastline. Limited warming was seen in the Caribbean.
By early 1998, the classic El Niño pattern was fully developed, with broader areas of high temperature in the eastern Tropical Pacific and extending up the Central American coast past Costa Rica, including all of the eastern Tropical Pacific islands; high temperatures in these regions began to dissipate in June. Bleaching levels of warming were seen along the Great Barrier Reef in February-March. Warming also began in the eastern to central Indian Ocean south of the equator, spreading to the eastern Indian Ocean by March, and dissipating after May.
In May and June, bleaching levels of warming were also seen across the Indian Ocean north of the equator and into Southeast Asia.
Bleaching warming in the Western Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean is most commonly seen in the year after the onset of an El Niño (see figure on left from Eakin et al. 2009).
The bleaching warming started to develop in July 1998 and peaked in the Gulf of Mexico in August and in the Caribbean Sea in October.
By 1999, the worst of the thermal stress was over, from a coral bleaching perspective, but only after major losses of coral reefs worldwide in 1998. Some warming was seen along the Great Barrier Reef in early 1999 but was much weaker than the prior year. Conditions were rather quiescent until August, when warming of the western North Pacific led to low bleaching levels of thermal stress that reached down to the Mariana Islands. Warming was again seen in the Caribbean in August-September 1999 but to a lesser extent than in 1998.
Wilkinson CR (2000) Status of Coral Reefs of the World: 2000. Global Coral Reef Monitoring Network and Australian Institute of Marine Science, Townsville, Australia 363pp.
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