NOAA Coral Reef Watch
(Experimental, Version 2, CFSv2-based, weekly, 1x1 degree spatial resolution)
|Outlook of Coral Bleaching Thermal Stress:||(Click on the images below to see their full-size images.)|
|Probabilistic Outlook of Bleaching Thermal Stress Reaching and Exceeding Specified Levels:|
Alert Level 2:
Alert Level 1 & higher:
Warning & higher:
Watch & higher:
The NOAA Coral Reef Watch (CRW) experimental weekly Seasonal Coral Bleaching Thermal Stress Outlook product presented here is based on a sea surface temperature (SST) forecast generated by an operational, dynamical, fully coupled ocean-land-atmosphere seasonal climate forecast model. The daily SST forecast is from the NOAA/National Weather Service National Centers for Environmental Prediction's (NCEP) Climate Forecast System (CFS). A detailed description of the CFS-based Seasonal Bleaching Outlook product is given in Eakin et al. (2012).
CRW's first Seasonal Coral Bleaching Thermal Stress Outlook product, released to the public in July 2008 during the 11th International Coral Reef Symposium, is based on an SST forecast from an experimental, statistical Linear Inverse Modeling (LIM) system (Liu et al. 2009). While the LIM-based Outlook will continue to serve the coral reef communities, it will do so now alongside the more advanced CFS-based Outlook.
The new CFS-based Outlook product significantly enhances CRW's capability for predicting the likelihood of coral bleaching up to four months in the future (typical bleaching season). With CFS's four forecast runs per day, CRW is able to produce a probabilistic Seasonal Outlook with 28 ensemble members at a weekly time scale. (This probabilistic forecast is not possible with CRW's LIM-based deterministic Seasonal Outlook.) Currently, CRW displays the CFS-based Seasonal Outlooks at probabilities of 90% and 60%, thereby identifying the lowest thermal stress levels that 90% and 60% of the 28 members predict, respectively. CRW also displays four images of the percentages of the 28 ensemble members reaching each of the four coral bleaching thermal stress levels (Bleaching Watch & Higher, Bleaching Warning & Higher, Alert Level 1 & Higher, and Alert Level 2). The corresponding weekly outlooks that the Seasonal Outlook is derived from are also provided to give potential thermal stress conditions on a weekly time scale.
The first version of CRW's CFS-based Seasonal Coral Bleaching Thermal Stress Outlook product, based on SST forecast from CFS Version 1 (CFSv1, Saha et a. 2006), was released to the public in July 2012 during the 12th International Coral Reef Symposium. In December 2012, the second version of the CFS-based Thermal Stress Outlook was released, by upgrading the system to use SST forecast from the operational CFS Version 2 (CFSv2) (Saha et al. 2012; Saha et al. 2010) which replaced CFSv1.
In a normal year, the Outlook forecasts no potential for bleaching. When the forecasted SST exceeds bleaching thresholds over a long enough period to cause bleaching, the Outlook maps display the bleaching potential. Actual conditions may vary due to model uncertainty, subsequent changes in climatic conditions, extreme localized variability, or weather patterns.
This effort is made possible through collaboration between NCEP and CRW, supported by funding from NCEP and the NOAA Coral Reef Conservation Program.
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Eakin CM, Liu G, Chen M, Kumar A (2012) Ghost of bleaching future: Seasonal Outlooks from NOAA's Operational Climate Forecast System. Proc 12th Int Coral Reef Sym. ICRS2012_10A_1.Liu G, Matrosova LE, Penland C, Gledhill1 DK, Eakin CM, Webb RS, Christensen1 TRL, Heron SF, Morgan JA, Skirving WJ, Strong AE (2009) NOAA Coral Reef Watch Coral Bleaching Outlook System. Proc 11th Int Coral Reef Sym. 951-955.
Saha S, Moorthi S, Wu X, Wang J, Nadiga S, Patrick T, Pan H, Behringer D, Hou Y, Chuang H, Iredell M, Ek M, Meng J, Yang R, van den Dool H, Zhang Q, Wang W, Chen M (2012) The NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2. Submitted to the Journal of Climate.
Saha S, Moorthi S, Pan H, Wu X, Wang J, Nadiga S, Tripp P, Kistler R, Woollen J, Behringer D, Liu H, Stokes D, Grumbine R, Gayno G, Wang J, Hou Y, Chuang H, Juang H, Sela J, Iredell M, Treadon R, Kleist D, Van Delst P, Keyser D, Derber J, Ek M, Meng J, Wei H, Yang R, Lord S, van den Dool H, Kumar A, Wang W, Long C, Chelliah M, Xue Y, Huang B, Schemm J, Wesl ey Ebisuzaki, Lin R, Xie P, Chen M, Zhou S, Higgins W, Zou C, Liu Q, Chen Y, Han Y, Cucurull L, Reynolds RW, Rutledge G, Goldberg M (2010) The NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 1015-1057. doi: 10.1175/2010BAMS3001.1.
Saha S, Nadiga S, Thiaw C, Wang J, Wang W, et al. (2006) The NCEP Climate Forecast System. J. Climate 19: 3483-3517