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Bleaching Outlook in our Google Earth Product

The NOAA Coral Reef Watch (CRW) Bleaching Thermal Stress Outlook continues to indicate that the greatest chance of bleaching during the upcoming austral summer will be in the region bounded by Papua New Guinea, the Solomon Islands, the northern Great Barrier Reef (GBR), and New Caledonia. Model runs now suggest that all of the GBR may experience some degree of bleaching this year. Currently, the forecast system suggests that thermal stress with a high potential for bleaching possible in that region with thermal stress in a band stretching from the Coral Triangle region southeast beyond Fiji and perhaps to French Polynesia. The severity of bleaching risk is reduced from that issued in the January outlook, primarily due to extensive cloud cover and an active monsoon trough over the region. This weather pattern has prevented further warming in the Coral Sea, substantially reducing the risk of bleaching. The figure above shows the most recent global 16-week Coral Bleaching Outlook from the 03 February 2009 model run.

The Bleaching Thermal Stress Outlook is based on sea surface temperature (SST) forecasts generated by the Linear Inverse Model from the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory. In a normal year, the Outlook forecasts no potential for bleaching. When forecast SST exceeds bleaching thresholds over a long enough period to cause bleaching, the outlook maps display the bleaching potential. Actual conditions may vary due to model uncertainty, subsequent changes in climatic conditions, extreme localized variability, or weather patterns.